Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Royals CLE @ KC

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

18-17  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, May 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

15-19  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Festa None-None 4.76 -- 1.2 1
Alex Lange None-None 6.14 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.76 Ldr ERA 6.14
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
GUARDIANS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .718
162
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +22.0% more
Kansas City: 9.5 vs Cleveland: 7.8
Walks (L5) +15.1% more
Kansas City: 3.4 vs Cleveland: 3.0
Home Runs (Season) +4.9% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.2%
Kansas City: 40.2% vs Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.0 2
KC Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 9.2 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 7.8 3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 15.0 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.0 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 88-71-2
54% 83-70-7
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 35 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 43 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 7 hours, 21 minutes ago
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
yahoo 7 hours, 34 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 19 minutes ago