BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
13-21 | Road
5
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
18-17 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | None-None | 2.04 | -- | 7.0 | 8 |
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.04 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
TIGERS
0%
RED SOX
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
BOS By 1-2 runs
7.8%
BOS By 3-4 runs
3.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
16.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Detroit
7
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 6, 2026
BOS @ DET
4 - 0
May 5, 2026
BOS @ DET
10 - 3
May 4, 2026
BOS @ DET
5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.409
OPS
▲
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8950.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+346.0% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Detroit: 0.4
vs
Boston: 0.0
OPS (Season)
+31.1%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
5
DET Score
7.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.6
3.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.4
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 12.5
5.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
54%
87-73
47%
76-87
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
93-67
57%
91-69
48%
79-84
TTL
46%
69-81-9
46%
72-83-5
46%
69-81-10
47%
74-83-6
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