Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Yankees BAL @ NYY

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

15-19  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, May 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

23-11  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
@
Paul Blackburn
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Blackburn

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yennier Cano None-None 1.50 -- 0.2 --
Paul Blackburn None-None 3.21 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.50 Ldr ERA 3.21
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
YANKEES
0%
ORIOLES --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

40.1%

Yankees Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BALTIMORE
6
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 BAL @ NYY 3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026 NYY @ BAL 6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 NYY @ BAL 5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 NYY @ BAL 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 NYY @ BAL 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
New York NYY
161 ▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.711
OPS
▲ 1.041
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +151.0% more
New York: 2.4 vs Baltimore: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +108.8% more
New York: 21.7 vs Baltimore: 10.4
Runs per Game (Season) +101.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Hits (L5) +67.0% more
New York: 11.1 vs Baltimore: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 5.0 1
NYY Score 6.0 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.1 / 6.7 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 6.3 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 21.7 / 10.4 18.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.2 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BAL
NYY
BAL
ML
47% 76-85
53% 83-73
52% 85-77
57% 90-69
ATS
59% 95-66
61% 95-60-1
53% 86-76
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 81-73-7
54% 81-70-5
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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