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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

43-27-12  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, May 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

53-22-7  |  Home

3
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
HURRICANES
0%
FLYERS --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Carolina)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 HurricanesCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

2.3%

Hurricanes Cover

97.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

PHI By 1 goal

0.9%

PHI By 2-3 goals

0.3%

CAR By 1 goal

6.6%

CAR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
PHILADELPHIA
5
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Win
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 CAR @ PHI 3 - 2
May 9, 2026 CAR @ PHI 3 - 2
May 7, 2026 CAR @ PHI 4 - 1
May 4, 2026 PHI @ CAR 2 - 3
May 2, 2026 PHI @ CAR 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +44.6% more
Carolina: 31.3 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Faceoff % (L5) +5.9%
Carolina: 53.1% vs Philadelphia: 47.2%
Blocked Shots (L5) +26.0% more
Philadelphia: 14.7 vs Carolina: 10.9
Hits (L5) +25.2% more
Philadelphia: 43.1 vs Carolina: 32.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 1.0 2
CAR Score 5.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
26%MONEY74%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
PHI
CAR
PHI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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