ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
16-16 | Road
4
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
21-12 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.83 | -- | 2.1 | 1 |
| Matthew Boyd | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.83 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
2.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
CUBS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u12.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u12.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CHC @ ARI
0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026
CHC @ ARI
4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026
CHC @ ARI
7 - 0
May 3, 2026
ARI @ CHC
4 - 8
May 2, 2026
ARI @ CHC
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720
▲
OPS
.374
166
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.7% more
Chicago: 8.6
vs
Arizona: 6.5
Home Runs (L5)
+22.0% more
Chicago: 1.1
vs
Arizona: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+17.9% more
Chicago: 13.3
vs
Arizona: 11.3
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.0
4
CHC Score
5.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.4
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.5
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 11.3
21.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.4
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ARI
CHC
ARI
ML
58%
93-68
54%
87-74
51%
82-79
54%
86-74
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
91-70
47%
75-85-1
56%
89-71
TTL
52%
81-74-6
52%
80-73-8
46%
72-83-6
49%
73-77-9
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