Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Athletics CLE @ ATH

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

18-16  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, May 3 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

17-16  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Colin Holderman
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Holderman

#35 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jeff McNeil
STARTING PITCHER

Jeff McNeil

#22 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Colin Holderman None-None 1.80 -- 2.0 2
Jeff McNeil None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.80 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
GUARDIANS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Athletics)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CLEVELAND
6
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 ATH @ CLE 0 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 ATH @ CLE 6 - 12
Sep 18, 2026 ATH @ CLE 3 - 5
May 3, 2026 CLE @ ATH 1 - 7
May 2, 2026 CLE @ ATH 14 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .719
162
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +79.3% more
Athletics: 5.4 vs Cleveland: 3.0
Home Runs (Season) +19.8% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Strikeouts (L5) +10.0% more
Athletics: 7.9 vs Cleveland: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season) +2.9% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 5.0 1
ATH Score 6.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.0 / 10.3 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.4 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.2 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 17.4 21.0 / 10.0
Walks 5.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CLE
ATH
CLE
ML
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
49% 80-82
ATS
52% 84-78
58% 93-68
50% 81-80
59% 95-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 88-71-2
42% 66-90-5
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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