Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Yankees BAL @ NYY

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

15-18  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 3 • 1:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

22-11  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Kittredge None-None 18.90 -- 0.1 --
David Bednar None-None 3.29 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
18.90 ERA Ldr 3.29
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
YANKEES
0%
ORIOLES --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

30.9%

Yankees Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BAL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BALTIMORE
7
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 BAL @ NYY 3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026 NYY @ BAL 6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 NYY @ BAL 5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 NYY @ BAL 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 NYY @ BAL 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
New York NYY
161 ▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.711
OPS
▲ 1.041
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +101.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Total Bases (L5) +70.3% more
New York: 18.0 vs Baltimore: 10.6
Hits (L5) +67.2% more
New York: 9.2 vs Baltimore: 5.5
Home Runs (L5) +56.3% more
New York: 2.1 vs Baltimore: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 5.0 3
NYY Score 7.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.2 / 5.5 15.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.4 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.0 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 10.6 29.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.7 / 4.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BAL
NYY
BAL
ML
47% 76-85
53% 83-73
52% 85-77
57% 90-69
ATS
59% 95-66
61% 95-60-1
53% 86-76
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 81-73-7
54% 81-70-5
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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