Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Angels NYM @ LAA

NEW YORK

METSNYM

11-22  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, May 3 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

13-21  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
METS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
4
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 NYM @ LAA 5 - 1
May 2, 2026 NYM @ LAA 3 - 4
May 1, 2026 NYM @ LAA 4 - 3
Jul 23, 2025 LAA @ NYM 3 - 6
Jul 22, 2025 LAA @ NYM 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.705 ▲
OPS
.679
204 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +15.0% more
Los Angeles: 3.5 vs New York: 3.0
Total Bases (L5) +11.0% more
Los Angeles: 12.7 vs New York: 11.4
Hits (L5) +10.5% more
Los Angeles: 8.8 vs New York: 7.9
Home Runs (L5) +10.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs New York: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.0 5
LAA Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.8 / 7.9 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 10.7 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 11.4 6.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.0 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
NYM
LAA
NYM
ML
59% 96-66
50% 79-80
55% 89-73
48% 76-83
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-66
51% 82-80
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 83-74-5
55% 80-66-13
52% 82-75-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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