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LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

53-29  |  Road

90
FINAL
Tue, May 5 • 8:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
LAKERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Oklahoma City)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

13.6%

Thunder Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

LAL By 1-7 points

9.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

2.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

21.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
108
LOS ANGELES
119
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
LOS ANGELES
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o214.0 Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u214.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.3% more
Oklahoma City: 8.4 vs Los Angeles: 6.6
Assists (L5) +19.9% more
Oklahoma City: 26.6 vs Los Angeles: 22.2
Free Throw % (L5) +11.3%
Oklahoma City: 82.5% vs Los Angeles: 71.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Oklahoma City: 49.7% vs Los Angeles: 45.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 108.0 90
OKC Score 119.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 36.6 43.0 / 33.0
Assists 26.6 / 22.2 29.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.2 / 6.8 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 45.2 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 71.3 92.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 44.6 44.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.4 / 6.6 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 15.8 16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
LAL
OKC
LAL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 68-43
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
ATS
73% 83-30-1
61% 67-43-1
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
TTL
67% 76-38
61% 66-43-2
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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