TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
46-36 | Road
102
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
52-30 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
RAPTORS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-7 points
27.4%
TOR By 8-14 points
21.6%
CLE By 1-7 points
20.1%
CLE By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
116
TORONTO
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Toronto
105
TORONTO
Cleveland
120
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Raptors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o209.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u209.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.8% more
Toronto: 6.9
vs
Cleveland: 5.2
Steals (L5)
+23.5% more
Toronto: 10.2
vs
Cleveland: 7.8
Assists (L5)
+20.9% more
Toronto: 27.3
vs
Cleveland: 21.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Toronto: 74.5%
vs
Cleveland: 72.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
116.0
102
CLE Score
112.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 36.2
28.0 / 29.0
Assists
21.6 / 27.3
23.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.2 / 6.9
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 46.4
45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 74.5
73.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
45.4 / 43.0
60.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.8 / 10.2
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.3 / 14.9
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
60%
69-46
55%
57-47
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
ATS
67%
75-37-3
61%
62-40-2
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
62-42
100%
99-0
100%
87-0
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