BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
15-17 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
21-11 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Nunez
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Blackburn
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Nunez | None-None | 4.11 | -- | -- | -- |
| Paul Blackburn | None-None | 3.46 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.11
ERA
Ldr 3.46
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
YANKEES
100%
ORIOLES
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BAL @ NYY
3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026
NYY @ BAL
6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
NYY @ BAL
5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
NYY @ BAL
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
NYY @ BAL
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
New York
NYY
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.711
OPS
▲
1.041
199
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Walks (L5)
+19.6% more
Baltimore: 3.7
vs
New York: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+101.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Hits (L5)
+32.7% more
New York: 8.3
vs
Baltimore: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.0
4
NYY Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 6.2
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.5
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.0
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 11.9
24.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.7
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BAL
NYY
BAL
ML
47%
76-85
53%
83-73
52%
85-77
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
95-66
61%
95-60-1
53%
86-76
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
81-73-7
54%
81-70-5
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-6
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