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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

20-12  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 4:05 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

17-16  |  Home

17
Probable Pitchers
Jose Trevino
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Trevino

#35 | Catcher
@
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Trevino None-None 15.75 -- 2.0 --
Gregory Soto None-None 1.72 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
15.75 ERA Ldr 1.72
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
REDS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Pirates Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
CINCINNATI
6
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.699
OPS
▲ .734
213 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +45.6% more
Cincinnati: 5.3 vs Pittsburgh: 2.9
Home Runs (Season) +12.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +58.5% more
Pittsburgh: 2.1 vs Cincinnati: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 7.0 7
PIT Score 6.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 6.8 19.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.1 13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 12.4 27.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.9 / 5.3 2.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52% 82-77
55% 88-71
52% 85-78
49% 79-81
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 81-82
50% 80-80
TTL
47% 72-81-6
53% 81-73-5
50% 79-78-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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