CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
15-17 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
19-12 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.70 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
0%
PADRES
100%
WHITE SOX
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
16.3%
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
CHW @ SD
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
CHW @ SD
4 - 0
May 1, 2026
CHW @ SD
8 - 2
Sep 21, 2025
SD @ CHW
3 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
SD @ CHW
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
San Diego
SD
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
Runs / Game
6.00
.324
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.362
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.826
OPS
▲
.925
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.2% more
Chicago: 7.8
vs
San Diego: 5.5
Home Runs (L5)
+27.9% more
Chicago: 1.5
vs
San Diego: 1.1
Hits (L5)
+14.9% more
Chicago: 7.9
vs
San Diego: 6.7
Total Bases (L5)
+13.8% more
Chicago: 13.6
vs
San Diego: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.0
4
SD Score
3.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 7.9
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 7.8
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 13.6
6.0 / 8.0
Walks
5.3 / 2.9
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CHW
SD
CHW
ML
51%
85-83
48%
81-87
51%
85-82
56%
94-74
ATS
54%
91-77
59%
99-69
55%
92-75
55%
93-75
TTL
51%
82-80-6
58%
97-69-2
54%
86-74-6
51%
85-81-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…