Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Athletics CLE @ ATH

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

17-16  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

17-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Colin Holderman
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Holderman

#35 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luis Morales
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Morales

#19 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Colin Holderman None-None 2.25 -- 1.2 --
Luis Morales None-None 14.46 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.25 Ldr ERA 14.46
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
GUARDIANS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Athletics)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

30.9%

Athletics Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

CLE By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 ATH @ CLE 0 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 ATH @ CLE 6 - 12
Sep 18, 2026 ATH @ CLE 3 - 5
May 3, 2026 CLE @ ATH 1 - 7
May 2, 2026 CLE @ ATH 14 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .719
162
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +44.8% more
Athletics: 5.0 vs Cleveland: 3.5
Home Runs (Season) +19.8% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Home Runs (L5) +12.0% more
Athletics: 0.7 vs Cleveland: 0.6
Hits (L5) +12.0% more
Athletics: 9.5 vs Cleveland: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 3.0 14
ATH Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 8.5 14.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.6 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.3 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 13.1 21.0 / 26.0
Walks 5.0 / 3.5 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CLE
ATH
CLE
ML
59% 95-67
54% 87-75
54% 87-74
49% 80-83
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 93-69
50% 81-80
58% 95-68
TTL
54% 84-73-5
56% 89-71-2
42% 66-90-5
44% 70-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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