PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
45-37 | Road
109
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
56-26 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
0%
CELTICS
100%
76ERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
193.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHI -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-7 points
27.2%
PHI By 8-14 points
23.0%
BOS By 1-7 points
18.6%
BOS By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
99
PHILADELPHIA
Boston
94
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
112
PHILADELPHIA
Boston
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
76ers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
76ers (-5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u204.5
Loss
Proj Total: 193.0
D
Sim
u204.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 2, 2026
PHI @ BOS
109 - 100
Apr 30, 2026
BOS @ PHI
93 - 106
Apr 28, 2026
PHI @ BOS
113 - 97
Apr 26, 2026
BOS @ PHI
128 - 96
Apr 24, 2026
BOS @ PHI
108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.7% more
Philadelphia: 5.3
vs
Boston: 3.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.2%
Philadelphia: 83.3%
vs
Boston: 68.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Philadelphia: 45.1%
vs
Boston: 43.3%
Turnovers (L5)
+19.9% more
Boston: 13.2
vs
Philadelphia: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
99.0
109
BOS Score
94.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 33.6
27.0 / 39.0
Assists
23.1 / 22.0
19.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.3
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 45.1
40.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 83.3
81.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
47.4 / 43.0
44.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.2 / 6.3
4.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 11.0
5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PHI
BOS
PHI
ML
57%
61-46
63%
69-40
53%
47-41
48%
45-48
ATS
59%
61-43-3
65%
71-38
53%
47-41
48%
45-48
TTL
56%
60-47
55%
60-49
100%
88-0
100%
93-0
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