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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

22-10  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

14-18  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Didier Fuentes
STARTING PITCHER

Didier Fuentes

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Didier Fuentes None-None 4.50 -- 1.0 --
Juan Mejia None-None 5.87 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 Ldr ERA 5.87
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
📊
ROCKIES
0%
BRAVES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Colorado)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

30.9%

Rockies Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATLANTA
4
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
7
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o10.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 COL @ ATL 2 - 3
Aug 29, 2026 COL @ ATL 1 - 2
Aug 28, 2026 COL @ ATL 4 - 6
May 3, 2026 ATL @ COL 11 - 6
May 2, 2026 ATL @ COL 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Colorado COL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.757 ▲
OPS
.739
1
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17900.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Hits (L5) +30.8% more
Colorado: 10.8 vs Atlanta: 8.3
Total Bases (L5) +23.7% more
Colorado: 16.5 vs Atlanta: 13.3
Home Runs (L5) +8.0% more
Colorado: 1.1 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 2.0 8
COL Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.8 / 8.3 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 9.6 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 13.3 13.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.2 / 5.2 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ATL
COL
ATL
ML
60% 97-64
46% 77-90
55% 88-73
54% 90-78
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 96-71
52% 83-78
52% 87-81
TTL
60% 93-62-6
53% 83-73-11
50% 77-78-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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