Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Angels NYM @ LAA

NEW YORK

METSNYM

10-21  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

12-20  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Devin Williams None-None 7.20 -- 1.0 2
Jose Fermin None-None 2.45 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
7.20 ERA Ldr 2.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
METS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

30.9%

Angels Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

7.8%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 NYM @ LAA 5 - 1
May 2, 2026 NYM @ LAA 3 - 4
May 1, 2026 NYM @ LAA 4 - 3
Jul 23, 2025 LAA @ NYM 3 - 6
Jul 22, 2025 LAA @ NYM 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.705 ▲
OPS
.679
204 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +33.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.0 vs New York: 3.8
Hits (L5) +21.2% more
Los Angeles: 9.2 vs New York: 7.6
Total Bases (L5) +20.8% more
Los Angeles: 15.0 vs New York: 12.5
Home Runs (L5) +18.3% more
Los Angeles: 1.3 vs New York: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.0 4
LAA Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.2 / 7.6 3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 11.0 6.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 12.5 6.0 / 10.0
Walks 5.0 / 3.8 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
NYM
LAA
NYM
ML
59% 96-66
50% 79-80
55% 89-73
48% 76-83
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-66
51% 82-80
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 83-74-5
55% 80-66-13
52% 82-75-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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