CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
20-11 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
16-16 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Trevino
#35 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | None-None | 22.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 2.85 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
22.50
ERA
Ldr 2.85
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
PIRATES
0%
REDS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.699
OPS
▲
.734
213
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+45.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8
vs
Cincinnati: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+3.5%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.5%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
1
PIT Score
6.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 8.7
12.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.9
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 9.7
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 16.6
27.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.9
1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52%
82-77
55%
88-71
52%
85-78
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
79-78-6
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
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