MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
16-14 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
15-17 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 2.2 | 4 |
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 4.93 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.57 Ldr
ERA
4.93
--
WHIP
--
2.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
NATIONALS
0%
BREWERS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
MIL @ WSH
2 - 3
May 2, 2026
MIL @ WSH
4 - 1
May 1, 2026
MIL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
WSH @ MIL
8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ MIL
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.743
OPS
▲
.744
154
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+36.4% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Home Runs (L5)
+26.0% more
Washington: 1.1
vs
Milwaukee: 0.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.1% more
Milwaukee: 11.4
vs
Washington: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.0
6
WSH Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 10.1
2.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 11.4
7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 15.4
3.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.3
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
57%
92-69
62%
101-61
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
94-68
57%
91-70
48%
78-84
TTL
50%
77-78-6
40%
62-92-8
42%
65-90-6
50%
77-77-8
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