Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Cardinals LAD @ STL

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

20-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

18-13  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 5.23 -- 1.0 --
Matt Svanson None-None 9.68 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.23 Ldr ERA 9.68
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
DODGERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
6
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 STL @ LAD 2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026 STL @ LAD 8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 STL @ LAD 13 - 8
May 3, 2026 LAD @ STL 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 LAD @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.762 ▲
OPS
.691
204 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +151.0% more
St. Louis: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +70.2% more
St. Louis: 17.3 vs Los Angeles: 10.2
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Hits (L5) +32.1% more
St. Louis: 10.1 vs Los Angeles: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.0 2
STL Score 6.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.1 / 7.6 12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 11.6 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 17.3 / 10.2 21.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.7 / 4.8 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
LAD
STL
LAD
ML
53% 85-74
56% 92-73
52% 84-77
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 89-70
59% 98-67
53% 85-76
43% 72-94
TTL
46% 68-81-10
48% 77-82-6
50% 76-75-10
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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