TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
14-17 | Road
7
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
14-18 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Rogers
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.53 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Taylor Rogers | None-None | 5.56 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.53 Ldr
ERA
5.56
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
TWINS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.8%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ MIN
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
TOR @ MIN
11 - 4
May 1, 2026
TOR @ MIN
7 - 3
Apr 30, 2026
TOR @ MIN
1 - 7
Apr 12, 2026
MIN @ TOR
8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.692
OPS
▲
.720
152
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+24.0% more
Minnesota: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+23.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Total Bases (L5)
+21.9% more
Minnesota: 13.1
vs
Toronto: 10.7
Walks (L5)
+20.0% more
Minnesota: 3.6
vs
Toronto: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.0
7
MIN Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.0
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 7.2
3.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 10.7
13.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TOR
MIN
TOR
ML
52%
84-78
46%
74-87
50%
80-81
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-67
56%
90-71
59%
95-66
49%
79-81
TTL
51%
78-75-9
51%
80-76-5
53%
80-72-9
45%
70-85-5
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