CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
14-17 | Road
8
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
19-11 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jordan Hicks
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | None-None | 3.95 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.95
ERA
Ldr 3.52
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
100%
PADRES
0%
WHITE SOX
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CHW By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
2
CHICAGO
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
CHW @ SD
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
CHW @ SD
4 - 0
May 1, 2026
CHW @ SD
8 - 2
Sep 21, 2025
SD @ CHW
3 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
SD @ CHW
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
San Diego
SD
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
Runs / Game
6.00
.324
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.362
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.826
OPS
▲
.925
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+91.8% more
San Diego: 4.5
vs
Chicago: 2.3
Home Runs (L5)
+31.4% more
San Diego: 1.6
vs
Chicago: 1.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+15.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 41.2%
OPS (Season)
+9.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 82.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
2.0
8
SD Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 7.8
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.7 / 9.3
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 12.9
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.3
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CHW
SD
CHW
ML
51%
85-83
49%
81-86
51%
85-82
56%
94-73
ATS
54%
91-77
59%
99-68
55%
92-75
56%
93-74
TTL
51%
82-80-6
58%
96-69-2
54%
86-74-6
51%
84-81-2
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