Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Red Sox HOU @ BOS

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

12-20  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

12-19  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan King None-None 3.55 -- 1.0 --
Aroldis Chapman None-None 0.93 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.55 ERA Ldr 0.93
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
ASTROS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

69.1%

Red Sox Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.4%

BOS By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
HOUSTON
3
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 HOU @ BOS 3 - 1
May 2, 2026 HOU @ BOS 6 - 3
May 1, 2026 HOU @ BOS 1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026 BOS @ HOU 4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026 BOS @ HOU 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Boston BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.169 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.229 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.354 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.582 ▲
OPS
.409
4 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +66.7% more
Houston: 3.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +43.5% more
Houston: 5.0 vs Boston: 2.8
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
Houston: 0.5 vs Boston: 0.1
Hits (L5) +20.2% more
Houston: 10.0 vs Boston: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.0 1
BOS Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 10.0 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 7.0 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 14.8 14.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.8 / 5.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
HOU
BOS
HOU
ML
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
47% 76-87
47% 77-87
ATS
58% 93-67
56% 91-72
48% 79-84
55% 90-74
TTL
46% 72-83-5
45% 70-84-9
47% 74-83-6
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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