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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

15-16  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

20-11  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Albert Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Albert Suarez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Fernando Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Fernando Cruz

#63 | RP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Albert Suarez None-None 3.45 -- 2.2 3
Fernando Cruz None-None 3.09 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.45 ERA Ldr 3.09
-- WHIP --
2.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
YANKEES
0%
ORIOLES --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

40.1%

Yankees Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BALTIMORE
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
5
BALTIMORE
7
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 BAL @ NYY 3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026 NYY @ BAL 6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 NYY @ BAL 5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 NYY @ BAL 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 NYY @ BAL 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
New York NYY
161 ▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.711
OPS
▲ 1.041
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +101.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Walks (L5) +35.0% more
New York: 3.5 vs Baltimore: 2.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +19.8%
New York: 59.4% vs Baltimore: 39.6%
Batting Avg (Season) +14.1%
New York: 37.5% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.0 2
NYY Score 4.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.9 11.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.0 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 14.8 20.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.6 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BAL
NYY
BAL
ML
47% 76-85
53% 83-73
52% 85-77
57% 90-69
ATS
59% 95-66
61% 95-60-1
53% 86-76
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 81-73-7
54% 81-70-5
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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