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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

12-19  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 9:45 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

16-16  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Ferrer
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Ferrer

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 4.05 -- 1.0 1
Jose Ferrer None-None 2.30 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.05 ERA Ldr 2.30
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
📊
MARINERS
100%
ROYALS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

77.3%

Mariners Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

19.6%

SEA By 1-2 runs

10.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
KANSAS CITY
3
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 SEA @ KC 6 - 8
May 23, 2026 SEA @ KC 0 - 5
May 22, 2026 SEA @ KC 2 - 0
May 3, 2026 KC @ SEA 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 KC @ SEA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.718 ▲
OPS
.693
170
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +50.0% more
Kansas City: 0.8 vs Seattle: 0.3
Walks (L5) +28.9% more
Kansas City: 4.2 vs Seattle: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +19.9% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Seattle: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season) +3.8% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 6.0 7
SEA Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 9.2 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.6 4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 7.7 7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 16.0 18.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.2 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
KC
SEA
KC
ML
50% 81-81
55% 89-72
52% 85-77
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 98-64
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
TTL
56% 85-67-10
58% 90-64-7
53% 81-71-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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