Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Athletics CLE @ ATH

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

16-16  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

17-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Basso

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Smith None-None 3.52 -- 1.1 1
Brady Basso None-None 6.75 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.52 Ldr ERA 6.75
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
GUARDIANS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CLEVELAND
3
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 ATH @ CLE 0 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 ATH @ CLE 6 - 12
Sep 18, 2026 ATH @ CLE 3 - 5
May 3, 2026 CLE @ ATH 1 - 7
May 2, 2026 CLE @ ATH 14 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .719
162
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +51.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6 vs Athletics: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +22.5% more
Cleveland: 9.5 vs Athletics: 7.4
Walks (L5) +60.8% more
Athletics: 3.6 vs Cleveland: 2.2
Total Bases (L5) +40.9% more
Athletics: 14.4 vs Cleveland: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.0 8
ATH Score 3.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.8 / 7.2 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 9.5 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 10.2 14.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.2 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CLE
ATH
CLE
ML
59% 95-67
54% 87-75
54% 87-74
49% 80-83
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 93-69
50% 81-80
58% 95-68
TTL
54% 84-73-5
56% 89-71-2
42% 66-90-5
44% 70-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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