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DALLAS

STARSDAL

50-20-12  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Apr 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Grand Casino Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

WILDMIN

46-24-12  |  Home

5
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
📊
WILD
100%
STARS --
WILD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 WildMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Wild Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

MIN By 1 goal

12.1%

MIN By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
2
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wild Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wild (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Wild (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 DAL @ MIN 2 - 5
Apr 28, 2026 MIN @ DAL 4 - 2
Apr 25, 2026 DAL @ MIN 2 - 3
Apr 22, 2026 DAL @ MIN 4 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 MIN @ DAL 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +18.5% more
Dallas: 16.1 vs Minnesota: 13.1
Faceoff % (L5) +2.1%
Dallas: 49.3% vs Minnesota: 47.2%
Hits (L5) +35.3% more
Minnesota: 32.2 vs Dallas: 23.8
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.1% more
Minnesota: 37.7 vs Dallas: 29.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 2
MIN Score 2.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
78%MONEY22%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DAL
MIN
DAL
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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