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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

50-26-6  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

48-24-10  |  Home

0
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
CANADIENS
100%
LIGHTNING --
CANADIENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Canadiens Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around MTL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
5
TAMPA BAY
2
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Canadiens (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Lightning (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MTL @ TB 2 - 1
May 1, 2026 TB @ MTL 1 - 0
Apr 29, 2026 MTL @ TB 3 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 TB @ MTL 3 - 2
Apr 24, 2026 TB @ MTL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +29.2%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Montreal: 2.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +10.5% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Montreal: 29.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +51.6% more
Montreal: 19.6 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Hits (L5) +43.2% more
Montreal: 39.1 vs Tampa Bay: 27.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 1
MTL Score 2.0 0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
56%MONEY44%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
TB
MTL
TB
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
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