Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Reds COL @ CIN

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

14-17  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Apr 30 • 12:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

19-11  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Troy Johnston
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Johnston

#20 | Right Field
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Troy Johnston None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 5.40 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.40
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
REDS
0%
ROCKIES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
COLORADO
5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 CIN @ COL 9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 CIN @ COL 3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026 CIN @ COL 7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026 COL @ CIN 4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026 COL @ CIN 13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.739 ▲
OPS
.699
180
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +87.2% more
Cincinnati: 4.4 vs Colorado: 2.4
Home Runs (L5) +71.4% more
Cincinnati: 1.9 vs Colorado: 1.1
Home Runs (Season) +18.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Strikeouts (L5) +17.9% more
Cincinnati: 10.0 vs Colorado: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.0 4
CIN Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 11.7 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 8.5 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.0 / 18.7 16.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.4 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
COL
CIN
COL
ML
55% 88-71
60% 97-64
49% 79-81
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
50% 80-80
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 81-73-5
60% 93-62-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 5 hours, 56 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 3 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 7 minutes ago
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
si 23 hours, 46 minutes ago
Padres Reinforce Bullpen as Mason Miller Rejoins for NLDS Game 4
local10 1 day ago