Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Pirates STL @ PIT

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

17-13  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, Apr 30 • 12:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

16-15  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Montgomery

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 10.26 -- 1.0 --
Mason Montgomery None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
10.26 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
CARDINALS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Pirates Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.691
OPS
▲ .734
167
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +61.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.2 vs St. Louis: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +11.4% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Hits (L5) +10.0% more
Pittsburgh: 8.9 vs St. Louis: 8.1
Runs per Game (Season) +6.5% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.0 10
PIT Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.9 / 8.1 7.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 9.1 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 15.5 13.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.2 / 2.6 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52% 82-77
53% 85-74
52% 85-78
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 81-82
53% 85-76
TTL
47% 72-81-6
46% 68-81-10
50% 79-78-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 7 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 5 hours, 54 minutes ago