ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
16-13 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
15-14 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.67 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 6.55 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.67 Ldr
ERA
6.55
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
BREWERS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
ARI By 1-2 runs
5.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
2.2%
MIL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
2
ARIZONA
Milwaukee
7
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 4
Jul 3, 2026
MIL @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 30, 2026
ARI @ MIL
1 - 13
Apr 29, 2026
ARI @ MIL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.720
OPS
▲
.743
166
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.2% more
Milwaukee: 10.6
vs
Arizona: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8
vs
Arizona: 0.7
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.3%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Arizona: 31.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
2.0
1
MIL Score
7.0
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.3
14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 7.3
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 17.0
23.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.9 / 4.2
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ARI
MIL
ARI
ML
62%
101-61
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
94-68
57%
91-70
48%
78-84
56%
89-71
TTL
40%
62-92-8
52%
80-73-8
50%
77-77-8
49%
73-77-9
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