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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

13-17  |  Road

13
FINAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

19-10  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Trevino
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Trevino

#35 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.77 -- 1.0 3
Jose Trevino None-None 45.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.77 Ldr ERA 45.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
0%
📊
REDS
100%
ROCKIES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
COLORADO
5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
7
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 CIN @ COL 9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 CIN @ COL 3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026 CIN @ COL 7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026 COL @ CIN 4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026 COL @ CIN 13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.739 ▲
OPS
.699
180
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +11.4% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Hits (L5) +8.3% more
Colorado: 10.1 vs Cincinnati: 9.2
OPS (Season) +4.0%
Colorado: 73.9% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +2.5%
Colorado: 25.4% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 6.0 13
CIN Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 10.1 10.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.2 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 14.6 14.0 / 27.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.0 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
COL
CIN
COL
ML
55% 88-71
60% 97-64
49% 79-81
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
50% 80-80
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 81-73-5
60% 93-62-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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