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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

18-11  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

15-16  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Casey Legumina
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Legumina

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Legumina None-None 4.26 -- 1.0 --
Cade Smith None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.26 ERA Ldr 3.86
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
📊
GUARDIANS
100%
RAYS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

89.4%

Guardians Cover

10.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CLE By 1-2 runs

5.4%

CLE By 3-4 runs

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
7
TAMPA BAY
2
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 CLE @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026 CLE @ TB 0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 CLE @ TB 3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026 TB @ CLE 1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 TB @ CLE 1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728 ▲
OPS
.696
169 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +23.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8 vs Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +10.8% more
Tampa Bay: 11.0 vs Cleveland: 9.8
Runs per Game (Season) +7.7% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (Season) +4.1% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 7.0 1
CLE Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.4 / 6.9 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 7.3 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 11.0 11.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
54% 87-74
58% 95-68
49% 80-82
58% 95-68
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-66
59% 95-67
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 88-71-2
47% 73-81-9
43% 69-90-2
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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