ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
16-13 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
16-14 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 1.17 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.17 Ldr
ERA
1.93
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
PIRATES
100%
CARDINALS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
19.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
10.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
8
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.691
OPS
▲
.734
167
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+40.9% more
St. Louis: 2.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+22.2% more
St. Louis: 17.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.4
Errors (L5)
+85.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0
vs
St. Louis: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+73.4% more
Pittsburgh: 3.3
vs
St. Louis: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
8.0
5
PIT Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.2
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.1
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 17.3
13.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.3 / 1.9
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52%
82-77
53%
85-74
52%
85-78
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
81-82
53%
85-76
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
68-81-10
50%
79-78-6
50%
76-75-10
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