Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Rangers NYY @ TEX

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

20-10  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

14-16  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Fernando Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Fernando Cruz

#63 | RP
@
Jacob Latz
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Latz

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Fernando Cruz None-None 3.27 -- 1.0 2
Jacob Latz None-None 1.08 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.27 ERA Ldr 1.08
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
📊
RANGERS
100%
YANKEES --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

69.1%

Rangers Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
3
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 TEX @ NYY 2 - 9
May 6, 2026 TEX @ NYY 6 - 1
May 5, 2026 TEX @ NYY 4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026 NYY @ TEX 0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 NYY @ TEX 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Texas TEX
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041 ▲
OPS
.713
2
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +79.0% more
New York: 2.2 vs Texas: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +53.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Texas: 4.2
Walks (L5) +40.2% more
New York: 3.3 vs Texas: 2.0
Total Bases (L5) +38.4% more
New York: 16.2 vs Texas: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.0 0
TEX Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.9 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 2.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 8.6 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 16.2 8.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.3 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NYY
TEX
NYY
ML
53% 86-76
47% 76-85
57% 91-70
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 92-70
59% 95-66
61% 98-63
53% 86-76
TTL
53% 78-70-14
53% 81-73-7
55% 81-66-14
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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