Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Dodgers MIA @ LAD

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

14-16  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 3:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

20-10  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Will Klein
STARTING PITCHER

Will Klein

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 4.91 -- 1.0 --
Will Klein None-None 2.77 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 2.77
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
MARLINS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MIAMI
6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
MIAMI
3
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Marlins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 LAD @ MIA 4 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 LAD @ MIA 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 LAD @ MIA 6 - 2
Apr 29, 2026 MIA @ LAD 3 - 2
Apr 28, 2026 MIA @ LAD 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.727
OPS
▲ .762
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +83.9% more
Los Angeles: 11.0 vs Miami: 6.0
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs Miami: 0.6
Walks (L5) +14.7% more
Los Angeles: 3.7 vs Miami: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.0 3
LAD Score 6.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.1 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 11.0 / 6.0 13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 10.1 9.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.3 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
MIA
LAD
MIA
ML
56% 92-73
48% 78-84
48% 79-87
55% 88-72
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 91-71
43% 72-94
54% 86-74
TTL
48% 77-82-6
56% 88-69-5
44% 70-90-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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