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UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

43-33-6  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

39-26-17  |  Home

5
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
100%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
MAMMOTH --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Vegas)
MammothUTA (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mammoth Cover

15.9%

Golden Knights Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

UTA By 1 goal

6.6%

UTA By 2-3 goals

3.7%

VGK By 1 goal

17.5%

VGK By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
UTAH
3
VEGAS
Simulated Score
2
UTAH
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Knights Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Knights (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Golden Knights (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 29, 2026 UTA @ VGK 4 - 5
Apr 24, 2026 VGK @ UTA 2 - 4
Mar 19, 2026 UTA @ VGK 4 - 0
Nov 24, 2025 VGK @ UTA 1 - 5
Nov 20, 2025 VGK @ UTA 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +175.8% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Utah: 5.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +22.4% more
Vegas: 26.9 vs Utah: 22.0
Takeaways (L5) +10.9% more
Vegas: 4.9 vs Utah: 4.4
Faceoff % (L5) +2.4%
Vegas: 53.3% vs Utah: 51.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 1.0 4
VGK Score 3.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
UTA
VGK
UTA
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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