ORLANDO
MAGICORL
45-37 | Road
109
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
60-22 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
PISTONS
100%
MAGIC
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ORL By 1-7 points
21.6%
ORL By 8-14 points
27.4%
DET By 1-7 points
9.3%
DET By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
118
ORLANDO
Detroit
107
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Orlando
100
ORLANDO
Detroit
110
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o211.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u211.5
Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
ORL @ DET
94 - 116
May 1, 2026
DET @ ORL
93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026
ORL @ DET
109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026
DET @ ORL
88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ ORL
105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.9% more
Orlando: 9.3
vs
Detroit: 7.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Orlando: 31.3%
vs
Detroit: 28.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Orlando: 75.4%
vs
Detroit: 73.7%
Blocks (L5)
+91.4% more
Detroit: 12.3
vs
Orlando: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
118.0
109
DET Score
107.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 31.3
36.0 / 45.0
Assists
23.0 / 20.0
20.0 / 21.0
Blocks
12.3 / 6.4
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 38.8
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 75.4
80.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
47.0 / 47.8
49.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.4 / 9.3
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
18.2 / 14.2
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ORL
DET
ORL
ML
55%
64-53
61%
65-42
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
64%
68-38-1
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
57%
61-46
100%
96-0
100%
91-0
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