Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Pirates STL @ PIT

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

15-13  |  Road

11
FINAL
Tue, Apr 28 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

16-13  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Hunter Barco
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Barco

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 10.34 -- 1.0 3
Hunter Barco None-None 7.71 -- 4.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
10.34 ERA Ldr 7.71
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
CARDINALS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Pirates Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ST. LOUIS
3
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.691
OPS
▲ .734
167
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +85.3% more
St. Louis: 2.0 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +41.9% more
St. Louis: 14.9 vs Pittsburgh: 8.7
Hits (L5) +12.1% more
St. Louis: 7.8 vs Pittsburgh: 6.8
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs St. Louis: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.0 11
PIT Score 3.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.8 13.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 2.0 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 8.2 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 8.7 / 14.9 23.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.4 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52% 82-77
53% 85-74
52% 85-78
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 81-82
53% 85-76
TTL
47% 72-81-6
46% 68-81-10
50% 79-78-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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