Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Twins SEA @ MIN

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

14-16  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Apr 28 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

13-16  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Gabe Speier
STARTING PITCHER

Gabe Speier

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kody Funderburk
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Funderburk

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gabe Speier None-None 2.31 -- 1.0 --
Kody Funderburk None-None 2.31 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.31 ERA 2.31
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
100%
📊
TWINS
0%
MARINERS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Minnesota)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

30.9%

Twins Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

SEA By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

7.8%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SEATTLE
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 MIN @ SEA 6 - 7
Aug 1, 2026 MIN @ SEA 3 - 4
Jul 31, 2026 MIN @ SEA 5 - 3
Apr 29, 2026 SEA @ MIN 5 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 SEA @ MIN 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.693
OPS
▲ .720
182
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Minnesota: 0.4 vs Seattle: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +11.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Seattle: 4.1
Home Runs (Season) +2.7% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Seattle: 182.0
OPS (Season) +2.7%
Minnesota: 72.0% vs Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 2.0 7
MIN Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 8.7 7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 6.5 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 14.4 11.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.0 / 4.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SEA
MIN
SEA
ML
52% 84-78
50% 81-81
50% 80-81
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 95-67
60% 98-64
59% 95-66
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 78-75-9
56% 85-67-10
53% 80-72-9
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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