TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
17-11 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
15-15 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 4.26 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.26
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
GUARDIANS
0%
RAYS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728
▲
OPS
.696
169
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.4% more
Cleveland: 8.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.5
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+27.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+11.1% more
Tampa Bay: 2.8
vs
Cleveland: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
1
CLE Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.9
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.5
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 13.0
6.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.8
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
49%
80-82
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-66
59%
95-67
55%
90-73
TTL
55%
88-71-2
47%
73-81-9
43%
69-90-2
51%
78-75-10
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