CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
17-12 | Road
8
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
19-9 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Rolison
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rolison | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 4.05 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
4.05
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
PADRES
0%
CUBS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.374
OPS
▲
.925
0
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+550.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+41.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Hits (L5)
+24.1% more
San Diego: 10.6
vs
Chicago: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.0
8
SD Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 8.6
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 7.6
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
18.1 / 14.8
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.4
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CHC
SD
CHC
ML
51%
85-83
58%
93-68
51%
85-82
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
91-77
61%
97-63-1
55%
92-75
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
81-74-6
54%
86-74-6
46%
72-83-6
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