Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Rangers NYY @ TEX

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

19-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Apr 28 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

14-15  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 3.55 -- 1.0 --
Cole Winn None-None 4.85 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.55 Ldr ERA 4.85
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
📊
RANGERS
0%
YANKEES --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Texas)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

15.9%

Rangers Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

NYY By 1-2 runs

7.8%

NYY By 3-4 runs

3.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
7
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 TEX @ NYY 2 - 9
May 6, 2026 TEX @ NYY 6 - 1
May 5, 2026 TEX @ NYY 4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026 NYY @ TEX 0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 NYY @ TEX 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Texas TEX
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041 ▲
OPS
.713
2
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9050.0% more
Texas: 183.0 vs New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +70.3% more
New York: 2.4 vs Texas: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +53.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Texas: 4.2
Total Bases (L5) +45.6% more
New York: 18.4 vs Texas: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.0 3
TEX Score 7.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 9.3 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 7.4 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 18.4 10.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.9 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NYY
TEX
NYY
ML
53% 86-76
47% 76-85
57% 91-70
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 92-70
59% 95-66
61% 98-63
53% 86-76
TTL
53% 78-70-14
53% 81-73-7
55% 81-66-14
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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