SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
13-15 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
9-19 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Gilbert
#0 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Mayza
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Gilbert | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tim Mayza | None-None | 3.94 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.94
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
GIANTS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
18.4%
SF By 3-4 runs
19.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
10.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
SF @ PHI
2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SF @ PHI
0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026
PHI @ SF
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.13
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.306
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.706
OPS
▲
.724
178
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.3% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Total Bases (L5)
+22.5% more
San Francisco: 15.1
vs
Philadelphia: 11.7
Hits (L5)
+20.9% more
San Francisco: 8.6
vs
Philadelphia: 6.8
Home Runs (L5)
+16.4% more
San Francisco: 1.3
vs
Philadelphia: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
6.0
0
PHI Score
3.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 8.6
11.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 6.9
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 15.1
14.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.5
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SF
PHI
SF
ML
59%
97-67
49%
79-81
49%
80-84
53%
85-75
ATS
65%
107-57
62%
100-60
51%
83-81
52%
83-77
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
82-68-10
51%
78-76-9
46%
68-81-11
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