Home / NHL Projections NHL / Canadiens @ Lightning MTL @ TB

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

48-24-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

50-26-6  |  Home

2
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
CANADIENS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MONTREAL
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
MONTREAL
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MTL @ TB 2 - 1
May 1, 2026 TB @ MTL 1 - 0
Apr 29, 2026 MTL @ TB 3 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 TB @ MTL 3 - 2
Apr 24, 2026 TB @ MTL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +29.2%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Montreal: 2.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.8% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Montreal: 29.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +34.0% more
Montreal: 19.6 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Hits (L5) +26.6% more
Montreal: 40.1 vs Tampa Bay: 29.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 2.0 3
TB Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MTL
TB
MTL
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
wsvn 1 hour, 38 minutes ago
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 7 hours, 40 minutes ago
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
yardbarker 7 hours, 52 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
yardbarker 1 day, 1 hour ago