Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Rangers NYY @ TEX

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

18-10  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Apr 27 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

14-14  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Peyton Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Peyton Gray

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 3.09 -- 1.0 1
Peyton Gray None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.09 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
📊
RANGERS
100%
YANKEES --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

69.1%

Rangers Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
NEW YORK
4
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 TEX @ NYY 2 - 9
May 6, 2026 TEX @ NYY 6 - 1
May 5, 2026 TEX @ NYY 4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026 NYY @ TEX 0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 NYY @ TEX 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Texas TEX
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041 ▲
OPS
.713
2
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +73.0% more
New York: 2.0 vs Texas: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +53.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Texas: 4.2
Total Bases (L5) +43.0% more
New York: 17.5 vs Texas: 10.0
OPS (Season) +32.8%
New York: 1.0% vs Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 6.0 4
TEX Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 9.4 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.0 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.1 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 17.5 10.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.3 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NYY
TEX
NYY
ML
53% 86-76
47% 76-85
57% 91-70
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 92-70
59% 95-66
61% 98-63
53% 86-76
TTL
53% 78-70-14
53% 81-73-7
55% 81-66-14
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 20 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 28 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 16 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 26 minutes ago
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
yahoo 7 hours, 29 minutes ago