Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Guardians TB @ CLE

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

16-11  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Apr 27 • 6:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

15-14  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Colin Holderman
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Holderman

#35 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Baker None-None 3.18 -- 1.0 2
Colin Holderman None-None 2.84 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.18 ERA Ldr 2.84
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
📊
GUARDIANS
100%
RAYS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

77.3%

Guardians Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.4%

TB By 3-4 runs

19.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

10.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
8
TAMPA BAY
5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 CLE @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026 CLE @ TB 0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 CLE @ TB 3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026 TB @ CLE 1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 TB @ CLE 1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728 ▲
OPS
.696
169 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +79.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.0 vs Cleveland: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +37.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.4 vs Cleveland: 0.9
Walks (L5) +30.3% more
Tampa Bay: 3.2 vs Cleveland: 2.2
Total Bases (L5) +13.4% more
Tampa Bay: 14.5 vs Cleveland: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 8.0 3
CLE Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.3 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.2 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 14.5 10.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
54% 87-74
58% 95-68
49% 80-82
58% 95-68
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-66
59% 95-67
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 88-71-2
47% 73-81-9
43% 69-90-2
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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