ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
46-36 | Road
97
NEW YORK
KNICKSNY
53-29 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
KNICKS
0%
HAWKS
--
KNICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)
ATL By 1-7 points
15.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
5.8%
NY By 1-7 points
26.2%
NY By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
100
ATLANTA
New York
107
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Atlanta
105
ATLANTA
New York
112
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knicks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knicks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knicks (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Knicks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u215.0
Loss
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u215.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
NY @ ATL
140 - 89
Apr 28, 2026
ATL @ NY
97 - 126
Apr 25, 2026
NY @ ATL
114 - 98
Apr 23, 2026
NY @ ATL
108 - 109
Apr 20, 2026
ATL @ NY
107 - 106
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
New York: 37.6%
vs
Atlanta: 32.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
New York: 78.2%
vs
Atlanta: 73.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
New York: 47.1%
vs
Atlanta: 44.7%
Blocks (L5)
+34.4% more
Atlanta: 5.6
vs
New York: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
100.0
97
NY Score
107.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 32.5
42.0 / 31.0
Assists
22.6 / 22.1
26.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.7 / 5.6
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 44.7
57.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 73.8
74.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
43.8 / 40.9
48.0 / 27.0
Steals
8.5 / 8.2
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 15.7
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NY
Advantage
70-32-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NY
Advantage
58-44-0
(56.9%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
ATL
NY
ATL
ML
61%
114-72
50%
52-52
56%
57-45
55%
48-40
ATS
67%
124-62
53%
55-48-1
56%
57-45
55%
48-40
TTL
72%
133-53
53%
55-48-1
100%
102-0
100%
88-0
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