OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Road
131
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
45-37 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
OKC By 1-7 points
27.2%
OKC By 8-14 points
23.0%
PHX By 1-7 points
18.6%
PHX By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
105
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
117
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
121
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u215.5
Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u215.5
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.8% more
Oklahoma City: 5.8
vs
Phoenix: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+42.8% more
Oklahoma City: 10.0
vs
Phoenix: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+13.6% more
Oklahoma City: 25.9
vs
Phoenix: 22.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Oklahoma City: 47.6%
vs
Phoenix: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
110.0
131
PHX Score
105.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 34.5
36.0 / 50.0
Assists
22.4 / 25.9
24.0 / 28.0
Blocks
2.7 / 5.8
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 47.6
53.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
81.3 / 80.3
75.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
41.6 / 43.8
33.0 / 39.0
Steals
5.7 / 10.0
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 9.7
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
OKC
PHX
OKC
ML
57%
60-45
70%
80-34
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
59-43-3
73%
83-30-1
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
TTL
59%
61-42-2
67%
76-38
100%
88-0
100%
95-0
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