SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
18-8 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
14-12 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Loaisiga
#43 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 2.19 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | None-None | 3.29 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.19 Ldr
ERA
3.29
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PADRES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
7
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u15.0
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
u15.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4050.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Arizona: 1.0
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+50.2% more
Arizona: 9.0
vs
San Diego: 6.0
Walks (L5)
+46.3% more
Arizona: 4.2
vs
San Diego: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.0
7
ARI Score
7.0
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.9
15.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 6.0
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 13.3
28.0 / 22.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.9
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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